What Your Portfolio Is Actually Made of? Part 2: The Capex Boom
For 50 years the highest margins in technology belonged to software. In the first quarter of 2026, three memory chip manufacturers are on pace to generate $350 billion in combined net profit. Samsung is projected to be more profitable than Alphabet, Microsoft, and Apple this year. A year ago it ranked 16th. Part 2 of the series examines the AI capex boom, the semiconductor inversion, and the competitive dynamic ensuring neither can slow down.
Let’em Build
I sat down with San Antonio realtor and developer, Jaffar Chughtai, a few weeks ago to talk about the San Antonio real estate market.
It's a buyer's market by any definition. Homes sitting 70+ days. Builders out on the edges of the city are offering rate buy-downs to move inventory. Investors are mostly on the sidelines because the math has become more complicated.
The conversation got me thinking about the bigger picture.
The K-shaped economy. The country's housing affordability crisis. And how Austin, Texas, quietly engineered an affordable housing boom while everyone else was still arguing about it.
What Is Your Investment Portfolio Actually Made Of? Part 1
You've spent 30 years building wealth. But do you know what your portfolio is actually made of? According to the 2025 Ocean Tomo study, 92% of S&P 500 market value is now intangible.
The Iran War and Your Portfolio: History, Energy Risk, and What to Watch
The S&P 500 fell just two percent in the first week of the Iran conflict. But a closer look at markets tells a different story. The rotation paused. Here's what history says, why the "do nothing" playbook carries more risk this time, and the five signals I'm watching.
Back to Basics: What to do with Bonds in 2026 and beyond?
With the 10-year Treasury yielding 4.05% against 2.4% inflation, bonds offer slim real returns in 2026. Learn when fixed income still makes sense, the bull and bear cases for bonds, and why long-term investors may need to rethink their allocation.
Back to Basics: How to Invest in 2026 - The S&P 500
The first installment of the 2026 Strategy Guide.
Valuation headwinds: Significant divergence between S&P 500 market cap and the Equally weighted S&P 500 forward return expectations.
AI investment uncertainty: The massive AI infrastructure spending by Mag 7 companies may not translate to sustainable margin expansion.
Software terminal value risk: Semiconductor stocks are surging while legacy software businesses are being sold off.
40 Years on the Front Lines: A conversation with Marilou Moursund
John Cervantes, CFA, sits down with Marilou Moursund to discuss 40 years of investment trends, market crises, and the origin of Crossvault Capital in San Antonio, TX.
Maximize your quality of life : Social Security and Retirement Withdrawals
Maximizing Social Security isn't just about spreadsheets and life expectancy calculations. Prioritizing your health span and understanding spending behavior patterns can help you enjoy your wealth during the years that matter most.
Physical Capacity
Retire. Spend. Give has become my mantra. Do it with who you love and do it when you are most physically capable to enjoy it. But how do we extend our physical capacity, how do we ensure we are aging not with just grace, but with a bit of rage.
Healthy Skepticism
Your exposure to AI isn't binary. It's a dial.
In this month's brief, I'm walking through the narrative shift that happened in November. The skepticism that's both healthy and necessary, and how to think about positioning into year end.
It's not about being right or wrong on AI. It's about not getting caught asleep at the wheel.
2026: Big Housing Shift -Part 2
Lower 10-year Treasury yields are only step one. The real unlock for housing — and potentially the S&P 493 — depends on whether the Fed and agency action can compress the mortgage spread. Here's how the mechanics work and what it means for equity markets in 2026.
2026: Big Housing Shift - Part 1
Treasury Secretary Bessent calls it "Parallel Prosperity" — closing the gap between asset owners and everyone else. For most Americans, that starts with housing. Here's what the administration is actually considering, and why the midterms are making this urgent.